Three Election Types, Three Different Stories
TL;DR
Election-type differences (Lok Sabha, Assembly, Local) are real but often assumed to be manageable. What is easy to miss is how deeply they reshape vote share, and how differently they do so for each alliance.
The next step is to line up vote shares across all three election types. Not to forecast, but to see whether the numbers behave consistently.
What the chart shows
Look at LDF: Assembly runs consistently above Lok Sabha, by nearly 10 points in some years.
Look at UDF: the opposite pattern. Lok Sabha sits well above Assembly.
Look at NDA: the lines cross and diverge unpredictably.
These are not random fluctuations. The gaps are persistent and alliance-specific. Each party has its own relationship with each election type.
Election-type differences cannot be corrected once and set aside. Instead, they stretch or compress support differently for each alliance.